* Voting due to start around 1030 GMT, result due after 1200
GMTBy Gavin JonesROME, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Italy’s Prime Minister Silvio
Berlusconi is expected to scrape through a vote of confidence on
Friday, despite the scandals, economic stagnation and intense
pressure from financial markets plaguing him and his
administration.Berlusconi was forced to call the vote, to be held in the
Chamber of Deputies early afternoon, after his divided
centre-right government suffered a major embarrassment when it
failed to pass a routine budget provision on Tuesday.He is seen surviving for now, just as he has survived many
such votes, because squabbling factions in his coalition are
still not ready to replace him.”If a group of deputies inside his People of Freedom party
had a precise strategy then probably Berlusconi’s days would be
numbered, but we are not there yet,” political commentator
Sergio Romano told Reuters.Voting is scheduled to start at around 1030 GMT, with the
result expected after 1200 GMT.Analysts say even if the 75-year-old premier wins, it will
be a matter of months only before a new crisis hits, and the
country is likely to hold elections next spring, a year early.”It’s very probable that Berlusconi will win confidence in
parliament today,” said Massimo Franco in newspaper Corriere
della Sera.”But the anxiety and fatigue of the ruling majority does not
point to any revival. If anything, it increases the sense of a
government limping towards the terminus, hoping to make it to
the end of the year without being forced to stop earlier.”Berlusconi told parliament on Thursday the fall of his
government would be “a victory for those who want to see (Italy)
fall into decline, catastrophe and the kind of speculation we
have seen for months in Europe and Italy”.Many analysts see the opposite as true, and see Berlusconi’s
ineffectiveness in the face of crisis bringing either snap
elections or an unelected government of technical experts, which
they say would be preferable to the current malaise.Nicholas Spiro, head of debt consultancy firm Spiro
Sovereign Strategy, said a “Berlusconi premium” had been built
into Italy’s borrowing costs.His political demise “could trigger a favourable
re-assessment of Italy in the minds of international investors,
particularly if a non-partisan technocratic cabinet took
office”, Spiro said.DISSENTERSSeveral newspaper editorials on Friday highlighted the lack
of new ideas in Berlusconi’s speech to parliament, describing
him as paralysed by a fear of aggravating tensions in his
coalition.”Not one new thought was expressed. Absolutely nothing. A
complete vacuum,” said Luca Ricolfi in La Stampa daily.
“Berlusconi has by now become a factor that is immobilising and
freezing Italian politics.”A number of centre-right deputies were absent from Tuesday’s
vote, infuriating Berlusconi and feeding suspicions that some
stayed away to raise their bargaining power in the coalition.On Thursday, Berlusconi described the episode as an
“accident” and insisted the centre-right bloc was united.He is facing internal challenges from a number of ministers,
most notably from Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti, who are
unhappy with his leadership and the damage his personal and
legal woes have done to Italy’s reputation.The prime minister is on trial in four separate cases,
accused of fraud, corruption and paying for sex with a minor.President Giorgio Napolitano entered the fray this week,
expressing deep concern about the viability of government and
demanding a “credible response” to Italy’s acute problems.A Reuters survey of about 20 analysts said on Thursday that
Italy was already in recession, would barely muster any growth
in 2012 and would miss the government’s fiscal deficit targets.Its sovereign debt has been downgraded in the past month by
Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch, and since early August it
has relied on the European Central Bank to buy its bonds to
prevent yields rising to unsustainable levels.